Surprising Pattern of Florida's Election Results

Look at the Percent Change columns
Explanation, Sources, and Graphical Plots are Below the Chart
by Kathy Dopp, kathy@directell.com, Wednesday November 3, 2004

COUNTY Voting Machine PERCENT CHANGE ACTUAL RESULTS REGISTERED EXPECTED_VOTES Turnout
vendor REP DEM REP DEM TOTAL_VOTES %REP %DEM TOT_REG REP DEM
Broward E-Touch ES&S 28.6% 27.5% 236,794 441,733 686,715 26.8% 50.5% 1,058,069 184,152 346,565 64.9%
Charlotte E-Touch ES&S 24.0% 34.6% 44,402 34,227 79,730 44.9% 31.9% 113,808 35,806 25,435 70.1%
Collier E-Touch ES&S 22.4% 40.0% 82,493 43,277 126,916 53.1% 24.4% 168,673 67,388 30,912 75.2%
Hillsborough E-Touch Sequoia 51.2% 11.0% 241,630 210,892 455,970 35.1% 41.7% 621,201 159,843 190,023 73.4%
Indian River E-Touch Sequoia 17.3% 30.0% 36,744 23,850 61,087 51.3% 30.0% 81,643 31,325 18,343 74.8%
Lake E-Touch ES&S 26.7% 13.6% 73,971 47,963 123,269 47.4% 34.3% 161,269 58,388 42,237 76.4%
Lee E-Touch ES&S 24.2% 33.7% 114,153 76,874 193,326 47.5% 29.7% 304,937 91,895 57,513 63.4%
Martin E-Touch ES&S 8.8% 51.5% 41,303 30,149 72,334 52.5% 27.5% 98,857 37,953 19,905 73.2%
Miami-Dade E-Touch ES&S 31.6% 25.4% 326,362 383,032 713,022 34.8% 42.8% 1,058,801 248,045 305,486 67.3%
Nassau E-Touch ES&S 48.0% -28.9% 23,726 8,543 32,656 49.1% 36.8% 41,353 16,031 12,017 79.0%
Palm Beach E-Touch Sequoia 20.4% 34.8% 174,233 275,030 452,061 32.0% 45.1% 729,575 144,679 204,000 62.0%
Pasco E-Touch ES&S 34.8% 18.9% 103,195 84,729 190,861 40.1% 37.3% 265,974 76,531 71,237 71.8%
Pinellas E-Touch Sequoia 26.5% 30.8% 222,630 222,103 448,875 39.2% 37.8% 590,989 175,947 169,789 76.0%
Sarasota E-Touch ES&S 11.6% 45.0% 104,446 88,225 195,183 47.9% 31.2% 240,592 93,552 60,833 81.1%
Sumter E-Touch ES&S 42.9% -10.9% 19,794 11,583 31,835 43.5% 40.8% 40,523 13,851 13,004 78.6%
1,845,876 1,982,210 3,863,840 5,576,264 1,435,385 1,567,297 69.3%
410,491 414,913
COUNTY Voting Machine PERCENT CHANGE ACTUAL RESULTS REGISTERED EXPECTED_VOTES Turnout
vendor REP DEM REP DEM TOTAL_VOTES %REP %DEM TOT_REG REP DEM
Alachua Op-Scan Diebold 54.2% 11.1% 47,615 62,348 111,022 27.8% 50.5% 142,358 30,887 56,111 78.0%
Baker Op-Scan Sequoia 220.4% -68.4% 7,738 2,180 9,955 24.3% 69.3% 12,887 2,415 6,895 77.2%
Bay Op-Scan ES&S 61.1% -28.3% 53,305 21,034 74,890 44.2% 39.2% 101,315 33,079 29,351 73.9%
Bradford Op-Scan ES&S 145.8% -51.3% 7,553 3,244 10,851 28.3% 61.4% 14,721 3,072 6,663 73.7%
Brevard Op-Scan Diebold 28.7% 13.7% 152,838 110,153 265,075 44.8% 36.5% 338,195 118,772 96,860 78.4%
Calhoun Op-Scan Diebold 433.2% -56.9% 3,780 2,116 5,961 11.9% 82.4% 8,350 709 4,911 71.4%
Citrus Op-Scan Diebold 37.1% 8.3% 39,496 29,271 69,457 41.5% 38.9% 90,780 28,809 27,039 76.5%
Clay Op-Scan ES&S 34.7% -9.2% 61,813 18,887 81,144 56.5% 25.6% 106,464 45,877 20,794 76.2%
Columbia Op-Scan Diebold 114.1% -43.1% 16,753 8,029 24,984 31.3% 56.5% 34,282 7,825 14,119 72.9%
DeSoto Op-Scan Diebold 128.4% -30.6% 5,510 3,910 9,493 25.4% 59.3% 14,901 2,413 5,630 63.7%
Dixie Op-Scan Diebold 358.1% -60.7% 4,433 1,959 6,440 15.0% 77.5% 9,676 968 4,988 66.6%
Duval Op-Scan Diebold 56.5% -9.9% 218,476 157,624 378,330 36.9% 46.2% 515,202 139,605 174,965 73.4%
Escambia Op-Scan ES&S 49.1% -17.1% 93,311 48,207 142,895 43.8% 40.7% 189,833 62,602 58,149 75.3%
Flagler Op-Scan Diebold 25.2% 26.6% 19,624 18,563 38,455 40.7% 38.1% 47,068 15,669 14,657 81.7%
Franklin Op-Scan ES&S 268.1% -47.7% 3,472 2,400 5,930 15.9% 77.3% 7,620 943 4,586 77.8%
Gadsden Op-Scan ES&S 165.7% -15.8% 6,236 14,610 20,948 11.2% 82.9% 26,884 2,347 17,361 77.9%
Gilchrist Op-Scan Diebold 131.2% -50.9% 4,930 2,015 7,007 30.4% 58.6% 9,035 2,133 4,106 77.6%
Glades Op-Scan Diebold 132.8% -35.6% 1,983 1,434 3,434 24.8% 64.8% 5,963 852 2,227 57.6%
Gulf Op-Scan ES&S 148.8% -50.8% 4,797 2,398 7,259 26.6% 67.1% 9,627 1,928 4,874 75.4%
Hamilton Op-Scan ES&S 268.9% -43.6% 2,786 2,252 5,065 14.9% 78.9% 7,645 755 3,994 66.3%
Hardee Op-Scan Diebold 160.7% -53.5% 5,047 2,147 7,245 26.7% 63.8% 10,399 1,936 4,619 69.7%
Hendry Op-Scan ES&S 91.3% -28.3% 5,756 3,960 9,774 30.8% 56.5% 17,144 3,010 5,523 57.0%
Hernando Op-Scan Diebold 28.2% 19.0% 40,137 35,006 75,832 41.3% 38.8% 109,656 31,303 29,428 69.2%
Highlands Op-Scan ES&S 36.7% -3.1% 20,475 12,986 33,687 44.5% 39.8% 60,176 14,976 13,401 56.0%
Holmes Op-Scan ES&S 261.9% -70.0% 6,410 1,810 8,298 21.3% 72.7% 10,982 1,771 6,036 75.6%
Jackson Op-Scan ES&S 178.7% -46.7% 12,092 7,529 19,750 22.0% 71.5% 27,138 4,339 14,127 72.8%
Jefferson Op-Scan Diebold 112.7% -23.6% 3,298 4,134 7,477 20.7% 72.3% 9,300 1,551 5,408 80.4%
Lafayette Op-Scan ES&S 459.3% -69.3% 2,460 845 3,325 13.2% 82.8% 4,309 440 2,755 77.2%
Leon Op-Scan Diebold 40.2% 8.7% 47,902 79,591 128,316 26.6% 57.1% 171,182 34,165 73,214 75.0%
Levy Op-Scan Diebold 126.5% -38.9% 10,408 6,073 16,649 27.6% 59.7% 22,617 4,594 9,940 73.6%
Liberty Op-Scan ES&S 712.3% -59.9% 1,927 1,070 3,021 7.9% 88.3% 4,075 237 2,667 74.1%
Madison Op-Scan Diebold 238.8% -38.7% 4,195 4,048 8,306 14.9% 79.5% 11,371 1,238 6,605 73.0%
Manatee Op-Scan Diebold 28.0% 29.1% 81,237 61,193 143,469 44.3% 33.0% 191,635 63,489 47,394 74.9%
Marion Op-Scan ES&S 34.8% 3.2% 81,235 57,225 139,581 43.2% 39.7% 184,257 60,279 55,427 75.8%
Monroe Op-Scan Diebold 27.3% 37.6% 19,457 19,646 39,517 38.7% 36.1% 51,377 15,286 14,278 76.9%
Okaloosa Op-Scan Diebold 35.8% -12.7% 69,320 19,276 89,288 57.2% 24.7% 127,455 51,059 22,085 70.1%
Okeechobee Op-Scan Diebold 92.6% -27.7% 6,975 5,150 12,184 29.7% 58.5% 18,627 3,622 7,124 65.4%
Orange Op-Scan ES&S 41.5% 23.9% 191,389 192,030 385,547 35.1% 40.2% 531,774 135,299 154,938 72.5%
Osceola Op-Scan Diebold 57.7% 18.8% 32,812 30,295 63,440 32.8% 40.2% 129,487 20,804 25,508 49.0%
Polk Op-Scan Diebold 50.4% -4.2% 123,457 85,923 210,642 39.0% 42.6% 295,742 82,059 89,651 71.2%
Putnam Op-Scan Diebold 110.6% -30.6% 18,303 12,407 30,960 28.1% 57.7% 45,344 8,690 17,878 68.3%
Santa Rosa Op-Scan ES&S 38.4% -22.5% 51,952 14,635 67,175 55.9% 28.1% 96,359 37,543 18,880 69.7%
Seminole Op-Scan Diebold 30.2% 27.9% 107,913 76,802 185,762 44.6% 32.3% 241,230 82,869 60,037 77.0%
St.Johns Op-Scan Diebold 28.7% 8.0% 58,802 26,215 85,699 53.3% 28.3% 109,635 45,678 24,272 78.2%
St.Lucie Op-Scan Diebold 28.6% 26.5% 38,919 43,367 82,798 36.6% 41.4% 137,951 30,272 34,288 60.0%
Suwannee Op-Scan ES&S 163.1% -55.0% 11,145 4,513 15,785 26.8% 63.6% 21,930 4,236 10,035 72.0%
Taylor Op-Scan Diebold 237.1% -53.0% 5,466 3,049 8,580 18.9% 75.6% 11,481 1,622 6,486 74.7%
Union Op-Scan ES&S 297.4% -64.5% 3,396 1,251 4,675 18.3% 75.5% 7,063 855 3,529 66.2%
Volusia Op-Scan Diebold 33.8% 25.7% 100,209 106,853 208,410 35.9% 40.8% 309,930 74,891 85,000 67.2%
Wakulla Op-Scan Diebold 137.8% -37.7% 6,777 4,896 11,763 24.2% 66.9% 15,396 2,850 7,864 76.4%
Walton Op-Scan Diebold 46.2% -29.5% 17,526 6,205 23,939 50.1% 36.8% 32,777 11,987 8,802 73.0%
Washington Op-Scan Diebold 179.6% -58.1% 7,367 2,911 10,363 25.4% 67.0% 14,421 2,634 6,947 71.9%
1,950,213 1,445,675 3,419,852 4,725,026 1,337,242 1,432,425
0.4583847 0.0092501 612,971 13,250

Note: These numbers were calculated when the Florida vote was 98.6% in.

Explanation of What these numbers are, and how they were calculated:

PERCENT CHANGE for DEM, for example, = (Actual DEM Vote - Expected DEM Vote) / (Expected DEM Vote)

This is a simple percent change measure taught in highschool mathematics.

EXPECTED_VOTES REP = the percentage of registered REP * the total number of voters who voted in each county on Tuesday.

EXPECTED votes would normally vary from the ACTUAL votes due to increased voter turnout or other factors. What seems very odd in these numbers is that the increase in ACTUAL votes from EXPECTED votes has a striking pattern of being so much higher for REPs than that for DEMs in counties using optical scan voting machines.

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/ and http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/index.shtml for registered voters by county and election results by county
http://vevo.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/ for voting machine type by county

Statistical Analysis and Visual Charts of the Data

Interesting Graphical Plots of this Data
Statistical Significance & Graph
Pearson's Correlations

Other Election Results Analyzed:

Florida Presidential 2000
Pennsylvania Presidential 2004

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